[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 36W/37W S of 12N in the eastern
Atlantic, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the wave environment south of 10N. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave axis along 60W S of 14N is moving west into the
eastern Caribbean at 10-15 kt. A surge of moisture associated
with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is east of the wave near the coast of South America.
Increased shower activity associated with this wave will reach
the southern Windward Islands later today.

A tropical wave axis along 83W S of 17N is moving westward at 10-
15 kt into Central America. Abundant moisture is related to the
wave based on TPW animation. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the wave axis near the border of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua south of 13N. The wave is also inducing a cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection in the eastern Pacific
SW of Costa Rica. Showers from this wave will spread across the
Central America today, and reach the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N18W to the coast
of South America near 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle across
Louisiana into eastern Texas. Scattered showers are noted along
this frontal boundary. This front is expected to dissipate later
today. Weak high pressure is centered near 25N88W. A trough will
form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
westward overnight in the SW Gulf. Fresh northeast to east winds
will accompany this trough. Easterly winds will increase over
south-central waters and the Yucatan Channel Thu night and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Trades in the
central Caribbean will increase to near gale force along the
coast of Colombia Thu night and Friday. High pressure north of
the area and lower pressure expected in the eastern Pacific, due
to possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow east winds to
increase to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and Fri.

SW winds ahead of an upper level trough from southern Florida to
Bay of Campeche is transporting abundant upper level moisture
from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough analyzed from 31N77W to central Florida
will dissipate this morning. The region is dominated by a broad
ridge anchored by a stationary 1024 mb high pressure centered
near 32N25W. The high is expected to strengthen slightly across
eastern waters Thu through Fri night.

SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across
the Atlantic to near the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical
wave located along 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net