[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 35W south of 12N in the eastern
Atlantic, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the wave's environment, and the wave coincides with
a trough at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted where
the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave axis along 58W S of 14N in the central Atlantic
is moving west at 10 kt. A modest surge of moisture associated
with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 08N-10N between 53W and
Guyana. Increased shower activity associated with this wave will
reach the Windward Islands early Tuesday.

A tropical wave axis is along 81W S of 17N in the Caribbean Sea,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Abundant moisture is related to the
wave based on TPW animation. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is between the wave axis and Costa Rica south
of 11N. The wave is also inducing another cluster of moderate to
isolated strong convection in the eastern Pacific. Showers from
this wave will spread across the remainder of Central America
tonight, and reach the Yucatan Peninsula late Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N20W to 05N26W to
06N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
about 180 nm N of ITCZ axis between 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle across
Louisiana into eastern Texas. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are noted along the frontal boundary. This front is
expected to dissipate on Tue. 1018 mb high pressure is centered
near 25N92W, with a ridge extending northwestward into Texas
coastal waters. A trough will form over the western Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and move westward across the SW Gulf
during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will accompany the trough. Easterly winds are expected to
increase over the far south-central waters and in the entrance
to the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Trades in the
central Caribbean will increase to near gale force along the
coast of Colombia Thu night and Friday. High pressure north of
the area and lower pressure expected in the eastern Pacific due
to possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow east winds to
increase to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and Fri.

An upper-level trough extends from South Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. SW wind flow ahead of the trough is transporting
abundant mid-to-upper level moisture across northern Central
America and the NW Caribbean into central Cuba and the central
Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure centered near Savannah Georgia will move ENE
tonight, dragging a stationary front to along 31N. It will then
gradually dissipate through Thu. A surface trough is analyzed
across the central Bahamas from 28N76W to 23N77W. The remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a broad ridge
anchored by a stationary high pressure located just NW of the
Madeira Islands near 33N23W. The high will strengthen slightly
across the eastern waters Thu through Fri night.

SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across
the Atlantic to near the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical
wave located along 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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