[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N31W to 01N32W, moving westward at 15 kt. TPW imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment, and the wave
coincides with a trough at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is along 58W S of 14N, moving westward at 10-15
kt. A modest surge of moistened air is associated with the wave
based on the TPW imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 08N-10N between 53W and the coast of NW Guyana.
Moisture associated with this wave will reach the Windward Island
late today producing some shower activity.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 80W S
of 17N. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Abundant
moisture is related to the wave based on the TPW animation. A
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is between the
wave axis and the coasts of western Panama and Costa Rica, mainly
S of 11N. The wave is also helping to induce another cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection on the EPAC region.
Moisture associated with this wave will spread across the
remainder of Central America today and tonight, reaching the
Yucatan Peninsula late Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 04N40W to 06N50W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
about 180 nm N of ITCZ axis between 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from northern Florida near
30N84W to SE Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
noted along the frontal boundary. This front will become stationary
across the NE Gulf and northern Florida late tonight, and dissipate
on Tue. Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is over the Gulf waters near
24N85W, with a ridge extending west-northwestward to Texas adjacent
waters. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula
each evening and move westward across the SW Gulf during the
overnight hours as weak high pressure remains in place. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds will accompany the trough beginning
Thu. East winds are expected to increase over the far south-central
waters and in the entrance to the Yucatan Channel Thu night into
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data along with some buoy and ship
observations indicate fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean. High pressure in the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean,
increasing to near gale force near the coast of Colombia Thu night
through Friday. The combination of strong high pressure north of
the area and pressures expected to lower west of Central America
by Wed, due to a possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow
for east winds to increase to strong intensity over the Gulf of
Honduras Thu night and Fri. During this time, the aerial extent
of the fresh to strong trades will aslo increase covering mainly
the waters S of 18N between 66W and 82W.

An upper-level trough extends from South Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. SW wind flow ahead of the trough is transporting
abundant mid-to-upper level moisture across northern Central
America and the NW Caribbean into central Cuba and the central
Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure system is located just off the Mid Atlantic State
with a cold front crossing south Georgia and the northern Florida
Peninsula. This weather pattern is producing gentle to moderate
westerly flow across Florida and regional waters. The low pressure
will move ENE, pushing the cold front over the far NW waters of
the area tonight. It will then become stationary while gradually
dissipating through Thu. As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N77W to across the central Bahamas to 23N77W. The
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a ridge
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located just NW of the
Madeira Islands near 34N20W. The high pressure will remain in
place while strengthening slightly across the eastern waters Thu
through Fri night.

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL)from CIMMS indicates an area of
African dust extending across the Atlantic to near the Lesser
Antilles behind the tropical wave located along 58W. Parts of the
Saharan dust has reached the Leeward Islands and the UK/US Virgin
Islands as well as Puerto Rico where dry conditions and hazy skies
have been reported.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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