[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N31W to 01N32W, moving westward at 20 kt. TPW imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model
diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is along 55W S of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt.
The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N-10N
between 53W and the coast of NW Guyana.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W
S of 16N. This wave is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
rather ill-defined at the surface at this time, and the axis
extends into the EPAC region. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is ahead of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean.
This is most likely due to the monsoon trough extending from the
E Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 04N29W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave along 31W/32W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within about 150 nm N of
ITCZ axis between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the N Gulf States, and extends from E Texas
to a 1008 mb low pressure located over North Carolina. Scattered
showers and tstms are noted along the frontal boundary. This front
will move across the northern Gulf today before becoming stationary
across the NE Gulf and northern Florida late tonight, and dissipating
on Tue. Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is over the central Gulf
near 25N88W, with a ridge extending west-northwestward to Texas
adjacent waters. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are
over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high.
Scattered showers remain over the the Yucatan Peninsula. A trough
will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and
move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours as
weak high pressure remains in place. E winds are expected to
increase over the far S central waters and in the entrance to the
Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with strongest
winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers
remain over the NW Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is over
Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is over Central America due to the monsoon
trough south of 10N between 73W-85W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean, with mainly moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW
Caribbean. The combination of the high pressure and pressures
expected to lower to the west of Central America by the middle of
the upcoming week will bring strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to
26N55W. Isolated showers are noted near the trough axis. To the
east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N89W to 25N46W.
A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N21W. A
surface ridge extends SW from this high to near 21N58W.

A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic today, and move S of 31N tonight. The tail end of the
front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue and dissipate
Wed. Weak high pressure will continue to dominate elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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