[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands along 24W
from 07N-23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is
noted with this wave, and model guidance supports its location.
Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from
08N-12N between 13W-17W.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-21N along 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb
trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air
and dust is hindering convection with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
05N-21N along 59W/60W, moving westward at 20 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection with this feature N of 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over Venezuela from 08N-11N between 62W-65W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N-20N along 74W, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Cuba and Jamaica.
Similar convection is inland over NW Venezuela and N Colombia from
08N-12N between 72W-76W.

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche with axis south of
21N along 94W, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis to include over S
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N17W
to 11N24W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to the coast of
South America near 08N59W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the ITCZ between 43W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the basin along 27N. 5-10 kt
variable winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. A stationary
front is over S Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered
moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 29N E of 93W. A
surface trough is over the Florida Peninsula and the SE Gulf
from 29N81W to 23N85W with scattered moderate convection within 90
nm of the trough. In addition, scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface trough.
Expect convection to increase over the E Gulf through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture prevails across the basin, and two tropical wave
are moving across the Caribbean. Refer to the section above for
details. A divergent environment aloft is supporting scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over western Cuba and
adjacent waters north of 20N. In the southwest Caribbean, the
EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection over
Costa Rica and Panama and waters south of 11N between 78W-86W.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
inland over Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast to pulse every night over the south-central
basin through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Diffluent flow between the base of
an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continues to
support widely scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic
to include the Bahamas W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge
dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered near 37N46W. Surface ridging will dominate the
central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable
and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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