[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis near the Cabo Verde Islands along
23W from 07N-23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is
noted with this wave, and model guidance supports its location.
No convection is observed with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending
from 06N-20N along 34W, moving westward at about 10 kt. A 700 mb
trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air
and dust is hindering convection with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-21N along 57W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection with this feature also.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 07N-20N along 71W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
showers are over the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate convection is
inland over Venezuela from 08N- 10N between 66W-69W.

A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche with
axis south of 21N along 92W, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed near the wave's axis
mainly across the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 18N20W, then resumes near 12N24W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N38W to 10N54W. Scattered showers are noted along the
ITCZ between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered over the central Atlantic. With this, 5-10 kt
anticyclonic winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. A
stationary front is over S Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 30N84W to 28N88W with scattered
moderate convection affecting the waters north of 27N and east of
89W. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Florida
Peninsula, and a surface trough was analyzed from 23N85W to 26N81W.
In addition, scattered showers have reached the SE Bay of
Campeche due to a tropical wave extending along 91W. Fair weather
prevails elsewhere. Expect convection to increase over the E Gulf
through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture prevails across the basin, and a tropical wave is
moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to the section above
for details. A divergent environment aloft is supporting the
convection over western Cuba and adjacent waters north of 20N.
In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports
scattered moderate convection over Costa Rica and Panama and
waters south of 10N between 76W-83W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Jamaica mostly due to
an upper-level low centered over Hispaniola near 19N71W. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast to pulse every night over the south-
central basin through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Diffluent flow between the base of
an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continue to
support scattered to numerous moderate convection north of 25N W
of 77W affecting the northern Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. The
Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin
being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 37N46W. Surface
ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the
weekend providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

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