[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa with axis
extending from 06N-21N along 17W, moving westward at 15 kt. A 700
mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
extending from 08N-20N along 31W, moving westward at 15 kt. A 700
mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust is hindering convection with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 07N-21N along 51W, moving westward at 15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 10N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis S of 10N near the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
08N-20N along 69W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are over the Mona Passage.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 08N-
10N between 66W-69W.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis south of 21N
along 87W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, W Honduras, and NE
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N16W
to 11N24W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N49W.
Besides the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section,
isolated moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. A stationary
front is over S Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered
moderate convection is N of 29N between 87W-94W to include S
Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Florida
Peninsula. A surface trough extends across S Florida and the
Straits of Florida from 26N80W to 23N83W with scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm of the trough. In addition, scattered
moderate convection has reached the SE Bay of Campeche due to an
approaching tropical wave. Mostly fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Expect convection to increase over the E Gulf through
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture with a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean
together with a divergent environment aloft are supporting the
convection over Cuba, the Yucatan Channel, and the Yucatan
Peninsula. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough
supports scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over Hispaniola and Jamaica mostly due to an upper-level low
centered over Hispaniola near 19N71W. Fresh to strong winds are
forecast for the south-central basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continue to
support widely scattered moderate convection north of 25N W of
75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the
basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 37N49W.
Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic
through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net