[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
extending from 08N-20N along 30W, moving westward at 15 kt. A 700
mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust is hindering convection with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 07N-21N along 50W, moving westward at 15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of the wave axis S of 10N near the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
08N-20N along 66W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Mona Passage. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
inland over Venezuela from 08N- 11N between 64W-67W.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis south of 21N
along 86W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula,E
Honduras, and E Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W
to 11N24W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N48W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-08N between 42W-46W, and
from 07N-10N between 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. A stationary
front is over the Florida Panhandle, enhancing convection north
of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also over the Florida Peninsula. A surface trough
extends across the Florida Keys/Straits from 25N80W to 24N84W
with scattered showers. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere.
This weather pattern will continue over the weekend. Scattered
showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a
tropical wave that will move into this region Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture with a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean
together with a divergent environment aloft are supporting the
heavy convection over Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the
southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over Costa Rica and Panama.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola and
Jamaica mostly due to an upper-level low centered over Hispaniola
near 19N71W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 66W.
See above. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-
central basin through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continue
to support widely scattered moderate convection north of 25N W of
75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of
the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 38N48W.
Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic
through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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