[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Cape Verde Islands with axis
extending from 06N-20N along 24W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area
of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 14N.
Isolated moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-16N
between 12W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-17N along 37W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of
Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave intersects
the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 32W-38W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 06N-20N along 55W is moving W at 15 kt. This wave is on the
leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large
scale convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 08N-20N along 70W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is
accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any
significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 09N30W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of
South America near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, isolated showers are within 120 nm either
side of the convergence zone axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low is centered over N Florida near 30N83W. A stationary
front extends SW from the low to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W
then westward to SW Louisiana near 29N94W. Convection associated
with the frontal boundary has increased in the past 3-6 hours with
with isolated moderate convection over the Florida Panhandle, and
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of Louisiana
from 25N-29N between 88W-95W. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a weak high
centered near the Yucatan Channel at 20N85W, maintaining fair
weather and light to gentle winds. 1-3 ft seas are south of the
front, with little change expected through Friday.

The stationary front over N Florida will gradually weaken
to a trough by Thu. Elsewhere, a surface trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each evening,
accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean. See above. Scattered
showers are just south of E Cuba from 19N- 21N between 75W-79W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over Panama S of 11N.
Relatively dry and stable conditions persist elsewhere. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean, while
gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere the next several
days, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the western
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the
Bahamas and W of 72W related to diffluent flow aloft. Gusty winds
are possible near the thunderstorms. Moderate S to SW winds are
noted west of 70W with 4-6 ft seas in open waters. Scattered
moderate convection is over the central Atlantic from 26N-30N
between 54W-62W. This convection is also due to another diffluent
flow aloft. A strong ridge prevails across the rest of the basin,
anchored by a 1033 high centered near 38N53W. This subtropical
high along with low pressure over the southeast U.S. will produce
moderate to fresh southerly winds across the waters north of 25N
and west of 70W including Florida coastal waters through Wed.
Moderate to fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, including
approaches to the Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area
through the end of the week.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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