[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa with axis extending
from 06N-20N along 22W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of
Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 14N. A large
area of scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over W
Africa from 12N-18N between 12W-16W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-20N along 35W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of
Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave intersects
the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 30W-38W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 06N-22N along 53W is moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is on
the leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large
scale convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 08N-21N along 66W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is
accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any
significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N16W
to 09N28W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of
South America near 05N53W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm
either side of the convergence zone axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is centered over N Florida near 30N83W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W
then westward to SW Louisiana near 30N93W. Convection associated
with the frontal boundary has decreased in the past 3-6 hours, but
will likely redevelop later today, with strong storms possible
north of 27N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a broad surface ridge, anchored by a weak high centered near the
Yucatan Channel at 20N85W, maintaining fair weather and light to
gentle winds. 1-3 ft seas are south of the front, with little
change expected through Friday.

Another weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters
late tonight. This front will become stationary and dissipate by
Thu. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into
the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean. See above. Widely
scattered moderate convection is just south of E Cuba from 19N-
21N between 75W-79W. Isolated moderate convection is over Panama S
of 10N. Relatively dry and stable conditions persist elsewhere.
Scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds over the south central
Caribbean, highest near the coast of Colombia. Maximum seas are
estimated to be 7-8 ft. Seas are 2-3 ft in the northwest
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the
Bahamas and W of 72W related to divergent flow aloft. Gusty winds
are possible near the thunderstorms. Moderate S to SW winds are
noted west of 70W with 4-6 ft seas in open waters. A strong ridge
prevails across the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1033 high
centered near 38N52W. The subtropical high along with low
pressure over the southeast U.S. will produce moderate to fresh
southerly winds across the waters north of 25N and west of 70W
including Florida coastal waters through Wed. Moderate to fresh
winds are also expected south of 22N, including approaches to the
Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area through the end
of the week, with a surface trough reaching the eastern part of
the region by Thu.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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