[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 05N-20N along 32W, moving W at 15 kt. A large
area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of
10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the
wave intersects the monsoon trough from 08N-11N between 29W-37W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis extending from
06N-22N along 51W is moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is on the
leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large
scale convection at this time.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean with axis extends from
08N-21N along 64W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is accompanied by
Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 09N27W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast
of South America near 06N48W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm
either side of the convergence zone axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee
into the NE Gulf then westward to SE Louisiana near New Orleans.
Convection associated with the frontal boundary has decreased in
the past 3-6 hours, but will likely redevelop later today, with
strong storms possible north of 27N. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a
weak high centered near the Yucatan Channel at 20N85W. This is
maintaining fair weather, light to gentle winds, and 1-3 ft seas
south of the front, with little change expected through Friday.

Another weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters
late tonight. This front will become stationary and dissipate by
Thu. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into
the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean. See above. Widely
scattered moderate convection is just south of Cuba from 19N-21N
between 76W-80W. Relatively dry and stable conditions persist
elsewhere. Scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds over the
south central Caribbean, highest near the coast of Colombia.
Maximum seas are estimated to be 7-8 ft. Seas are 2-3 ft in the
northwest Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the
Bahamas and adjacent waters related to divergent flow aloft.
Gusty winds are possible near the thunderstorms. Moderate S to
SW winds are noted west of 70W with 4-6 ft seas in open waters.
A strong ridge prevails across the rest of the basin, anchored
by a 1034 high centered near 38N49W. The subtropical high along
with low pressure over the southeast U.S. will produce moderate
to fresh southerly winds across the waters north of 25N and west
of 70W including Florida coastal waters through Wed. Moderate to
fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, including approaches
to the Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area through
the end of the week, with a surface trough reaching the eastern
part of the region by Thu.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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