[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the far east Atlantic with axis
extending from 05N-20N along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A large
area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of
10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the
wave intersects the monsoon trough from 08N-11N between 25W-32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-22N along 50W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is on the
leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large
scale convection at this time. Scattered moderate convection is
noted on the southern end of the tropical wave where it
intersects the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 41W-47W.

A tropical wave in the western Atlantic with axis extends from
07N-21N along 62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is accompanied by
Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 09N26W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast
of South America near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are within 120
nm either side of the remainder of the convergence zone axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle at
30N84W to SE Louisiana near New Orleans, with scattered moderate
to strong convection over water south of the front as a squall
line from northern Florida south of Louisiana. strong winds and
6-7 ft seas are reported along the squall line. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by
a 1016 mb high centered over the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W.
This feature is maintaining fair weather, light to gentle winds,
and 1 to 3 ft seas across remainder of the basin.

The cold front over the Florida Panhandle will be followed by
another weak cold front that will move over the northern Gulf
waters Tue night. This front will become stationary and weaken
Thu. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into
the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal
winds. Elsewhere, surface ridging will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean. See above. Widely
scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 18N-20N between
76W-82W. Dry conditions persist elsewhere. Scatterometer data
indicated fresh to strong trade winds over the south central
Caribbean, mainly off Colombia. Maximum seas are estimated to be
8 to 9 ft. Seas are 2 to 3 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and 5
to 7 ft elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
northern Bahamas and adjacent waters related to divergent flow
aloft. Gusty winds are possible in these thunderstorms. Moderate
S to SW winds are noted west of 70W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open
waters. A broad high prevails across the remainder of the basin,
centered near 40N48W. The Atlantic high along with low pressure
over the southeast U.S. will produce moderate to fresh southerly
winds across the waters just offshore the central and northeast
Florida through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected
south of 22N, including approaches to the Windward Passage.
Ridging will dominate the area most of the forecast period, with
a surface trough reaching the E part of the region by Thu.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net