[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl is centered near 38.6N 62.4W at
16/0300 UTC or about 395 nm NNE of Bermuda, moving ENE or 65
degrees at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 knots.
Latest satellite imagery shows that Beryl has weakened as noted
by its exposed center that consists of broken to scattered low to
mid-level clouds. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
day or so, and the low is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. A
turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected
tomorrow, with this motion continuing through early Tuesday.
Please read the last NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC and high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 for more information.

SW Caribbean Sea gale warning: NE to E minimal gale force winds
are forecast near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between
74W and 76W, at 16/0600 UTC. The gale is forecast to end 16/1800
UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 07N to
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-09N between 31W-35W. The GOES-16 RGB
images are depicting yet another massive plume of Saharan dry air
and associated dust following in behind the wave from 10N-28N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 20N62W to
07N65W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave continues to be
impacted by Saharan dust, suppressing deep convection. Only
isolated showers moving quickly westward with the fresh easterly
trades are seen within 120 nm of the wave axis. This wave will
move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tue night, and the
central Caribbean Wed through Thu.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 81W S of 20N
to beyond Panama, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is ill-
defined at the surface. Its position is based on extrapolation
and from the latest 700 mb model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over Panama.

A Central America tropical wave is along 88W S of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over much
of the central America to include the Gulf of Honduras. Model
guidance also indicates that a 700 mb trough is present over much
of Central America. The wave will move into the eastern Pacific
Ocean on Mon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N17W to 10N30W to
06N41W. The ITCZ begins near 06N41W and continues to South
America near 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
03N-07N between 39W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over te W Gulf of Mexico near 26N92W.
5-15 kt anticyclonic flow is noted around the high with strongest
winds along the Texas coast. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the NE gulf N of
28N. Expect high pressure to prevail across the northern waters
through Thu. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds in
the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia. Aside from the tropical
wave features as described above, an upper level low is noted on
water vapor imagery S of Cuba near 20N79W. Scattered showers are
also over the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong E winds will
continue over the central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1016 mb low is off the N Florida coast near 31N78W. A surface
trough is also over the W Atlantic from 32N62W to 29N70W. near
the N Bahamas. This trough will slowly weaken through Tue as the
upper trough lifts to the NE away from it. High pressure will
build in the wake of the trough.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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