[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
809 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Beryl is centered near 38.2N 63.8W at 15/2100
UTC or about 356 nm N of Bermuda, moving ENE or 75 degrees at 5
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. Latest
satellite imagery shows that Beryl has weakened since yesterday as
noted by its exposed center that consists of broken to scattered
low to mid-level clouds. Beryl should begin to weaken tonight when
it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system late tonight or on
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC and high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 for more information.

SW Caribbean Sea gale warning: NE to E minimal gale force winds
are near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and
76W. The gale is forecast to end 16/1500 UTC. Please read the
High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from
07N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is depicted on
GOES-16 RGB imagery as having a rather broad envelope of broken to
overcast mainly stratocumulus clouds. The GOES-16 RGB images
along with visible images of the far eastern Atlantic are
depicting yet another massive plume of Saharan dry air and
associated dust following in behind the wave from 10N-28N.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis extending from
near 21N59W to 09N62W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave
continues to be impacted by Saharan dust, which is not allowing
for any deep convection to develop along and near it. Only
isolated showers moving quickly westward with the fresh easterly
trades are seen within about 300 nm east and 180 west of the wave
axis. This wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through
Tue night, and the central Caribbean Wed through Thu.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 79W S of 20N
to beyond Panama, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave is ill-
defined at the surface. Its position was based on extrapolation
from the past 6 to 24 hr analyzed position and from the latest
guidance from 700 mb model diagnostics. No deep convection is
noted with this wave as it located to the west of an upper level
trough as mentioned in the above paragraph.

A Central America tropical wave is along 86W S of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. The combination of this wave with local
topography effects has initiated scattered moderate convection over
much of the central America to include the Gulf of Honduras.
Model guidance indicates that 700 mb troughing is present over
much of Central America providing further support for the shower
and thunderstorm activity. The wave will move into the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Mon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 13N16W to 06N40W.
The ITCZ begins near 06N40W and continues to South America near
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between
42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb is the main feature that is influencing
the synoptic pattern across the basin. Its associated gradient is
allowing for generally light to moderate anticyclonic flow to
exist over the gulf waters. Current NWS mosaic radar displays show
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the
eastern gulf waters as well as over the eastern half of the
central gulf. This activity is moving westward under moderate
upper northeast winds. The activity should continue into the early
evening, with some possibility of more activity developing during
the overnight hours.

The high pressure will prevail across the northern waters through
Thu. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds in
the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the tropical wave features as described above, an upper
level trough is noted on water vapor imagery to be anchored from
near eastern Cuba to vicinity Jamaica and to near 10N80W.
Scattered to broken high clouds streaming northeastward are
seen within 600 nm to its southeast. Isolated showers moving
rapidly to the west are present over much of the basin, except
along the immediate coasts of Central America S of 16N where
deeper convective activity is occurring as described above
with the inland tropical wave along 83W. This activity should
persist through Mon night or so. Otherwise, a tight pressure
gradient will allow for NE-E winds to pulse to minimal gale near
the coast of Colombia over the next few days as described above
under Special Features. Fresh to strong E winds will continue
over the central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Subtropical Storm Beryl.

A weak 1018 mb low is near 31N78W with a trough extending
southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Recent
scatterometer data picked up on this feature. Current NWS mosaic
radar imagery along with recent satellite imagery show increasing
scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the
low in the SE and S quadrants. Another surface trough is analyzed
from near 32N63W to 27N76W near the N Bahamas. The latter surface
trough will slowly weaken through Tue as the upper trough lifts
to the NE away from it. High pressure will build in the wake of
the trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between
the Bahamas and southeastern Florida are due to a weak surface.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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