[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea...

The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of
minimal gale force NE-E winds across the south-central Caribbean,
particularly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. Sea heights
range from 10 feet to 14 feet. These conditions are forecast to
occur again tonight. Please, see the High Seas Forecast, under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 06N-19N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between
33W and 40W, near the monsoon trough/ ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 06N-20N.
Convection is limited near the wave's axis due to the presence of
African dust.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 07N-17N.
This wave continue to enhance some shower activity over Venezuela.

A tropical wave has its axis over the Yucatan Peninsula and
Guatemala, and extends southward into the EPAC region. Currently,
scattered showers are near the wave's axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
to near 11N32. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 07N50W to 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 43W-50W.
Similar convection is from 8=08N-10.5N between 56W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure will continue across the area through Mon. A
surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through tUE. It will tend to enhance nocturnal winds and
seas over the SW Gulf. A tropical wave will move westward across
the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning is in effect in the central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia. Winds will diminish below gale force this
morning, and are expected to reach minimal gale force again
tonight, exceeding 30 kt each night afterwards through early Mon.
A series of westward moving tropical waves lined up from the
eastern Caribbean across the Atlantic to near 35W will pass
quickly across the region through Tue. High pressure will build
behind each passing tropical wave to freshen trade winds in the
region, particularly across the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl,
has formed about 300 miles west of Bermuda, but showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system remain disorganized due to
strong upper-level winds.  These winds are expected to become even
less conducive for tropical or subtropical development over the
next day or two while the low moves north-northeastward at about 10
mph, and development will be limited once the low reaches colder
waters by Saturday night or Sunday. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends from the aforementioned weak low to
central Florida. This trough will linger over the area through
Sun. High pressure will build westward from the central Atlantic
through Mon, supporting fresh to strong trade winds mainly S of
23N W of 65W. Winds are expected to pulse to locally strong just
north of Hispaniola at night this weekend.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of the Bermuda-Azores High with a center of 1034 mb located WNW
of the Azores near 40N38W. The ridge extends SW into the NE
Caribbean.

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS depicts a surge of African
dust over the eastern Atlantic, and behind the tropical wave
along 54W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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