[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds are present, from 11N to 12.5N between
74W and 76W. Sea heights range from 10 feet to 14 feet. These
conditions are forecast to last for the next 12 hours or so.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 19N
southward. Scattered moderatet to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 08N to 11N between 34W and 38W, near the monsoon trough/
ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 20N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 12N to 23N between 48W
and 56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 08N to 10N between 55W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 17N southward.
The tropical wave is moving through the area of an existing upper
level trough. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 20N between 62W
and 70W.

A tropical wave has moved into the Yucatan Peninsula, from 21N in
Mexico southward, through Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 13N to 21N between 85W and 94W, from Central America into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 12N30W. The ITCZ is along 07N38W 06N51W, and from
10N54W to 09N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
10N14W 07N20W 10N35W 06N47W 09N57W 09N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. An east-to-west
oriented surface ridge extends from the Bahamas near 26N77W,
across Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico.

An east-to-west oriented upper level trough is along 25N. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward
from 90W eastward, and from 22N northward from 90W westward.

Weak surface high pressure will prevail across the area
through Tuesday. A tropical wave will move westward across the
SW Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale-
force winds off the coast of Colombia.

An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, toward the
coast of northern Colombia. The trough is connected to the
Atlantic Ocean 32N58W 23N62W trough.

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W, through
Panama along 80W, beyond NW Costa Rica. isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 11N southward from 80W westward.

Westward-moving tropical waves are lined up in a series, from 35W
in the Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Caribbean Sea. The waves
will pass across the region quickly through Tuesday. High
pressure will build across the region behind each passing tropical
wave, in order to freshen the trade winds in the central
Caribbean Sea waters. The winds will pulse to strong-to-near gale
force each night off Colombia through Tuesday, except to minimal
gale-force tonight and on Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the remnant low pressure center of
Beryl, near 32N70W, to 29N75W and 28N79W. widely scattered
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N to 32N between
68W and 76W.

An upper level trough is along 32N58W to 28N60W to 23N62W, beyond
the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
northward between 54W and 64W.

The current surface trough, that is connected to the remnant low
pressure center of Beryl, will linger in the area through Sunday.
Surface high pressure will build westward from the central
Atlantic Ocean from Friday through Monday. Expect fresh to strong
trade winds south of 23N. The wind speeds will pulse to strong
north of Hispaniola at night during the upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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