[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Chris, at 10/0900 UTC, is near 32.6N
73.9W, or about 175 nm/325 km, SSE of Cape Hatteras in North
Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today and some additional strengthening is expected through
Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post-
tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the
center. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
are within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 30W/32W from 19N southward, moving W
10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 08N to 20N between
27W and 35W.

A tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 13N southward moving W
15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are possible in the ITCZ, from
10N southward between 50W and 60W. Expect fresh winds along the
wave as it continues moving westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 71W/73W from
23N southward, moving W 20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers
the NW Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola and Cuba from 700 mb to
500 mb. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 17N to 26N between 66W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 11N23W and 09N28W. The ITCZ is
along 11N34W 12N36W 08N45W 07N54W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 08N to 09N between 15W
and 17W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Widely scattered
showers are over the Florida Bay. A weak surface trough is south
of 22N between 95W-96W near Veracruz. Expect a surface trough to
move offshore each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the
central Caribbean. Winds associated with the wave will be 20-25
kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with 9-10 ft seas. Remnants
of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest across Hispaniola
overnight, emerging into the Atlantic near the Bahamas Tuesday.
An unfavorable upper level environment will hinder redevelopment
during the next day or so, but conditions may become a little
more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu north of the Bahamas.
Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest
coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the
influence of a broad ridge extending from the central Atlantic.
Widespread moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of this ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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