[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Chris is stationary near 32.3N 74.3W at 0300 UTC
or about 190 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Estimated
minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance is 995
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is mainly southeast of
the center from 31N-33N between 73W-75W. Chris is expected to
remain nearly stationary during the next 12 to 24 hours. Some
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tue. A northeastward
motion is forecast to begin late Tue, with Chris accelerating
northeastward Wed and Thu. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 29W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
This wave has a good moisture signature at low to mid levels, as
noted on satellite imagery. Scattered shallow showers are noted
along the wave's axis between 10N-16N.

A tropical wave is along 53W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 52W-54W.
Expect fresh winds along the wave axis as it continues moving
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 69W from 11N-
22N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is across the Greater Antilles from 17N-23N bewteen 65W-72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa
from 14N17W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave
from 11N31W to 11N36W to 06N52W. Scattered convection is
along and north of the ITCZ axis between 38W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Widely scattered
showers are over the Florida Bay. A weak surface trough is south
of 22N between 95W-96W near Veracruz. Expect a surface trough to
move offshore each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the
central Caribbean. Winds associated with the wave will be 20-25
kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with 9-10 ft seas. Remnants
of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest across Hispaniola
overnight, emerging into the Atlantic near the Bahamas Tuesday.
An unfavorable upper level environment will hinder redevelopment
during the next day or so, but conditions may become a little
more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu north of the Bahamas.
Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest
coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the
influence of a broad ridge extending from the central Atlantic.
Widespread moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of this ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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