[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl near 10.7N 46.5W 994 mb at 11 AM EDT, or about
1045 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 13
kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm east and
150 nm west of the center. Beryl will move to 11.3N 47.9W this
evening, 12.2N 50.1W Sat morning, 13.3N 53.0W Sat evening, 14.2N
56.6W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.2N
64.6W Mon morning. Beryl will move inland over Hispaniola near
18.5N 72.0W early Tue, and dissipate on Wed.

A well-defined surface low is located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms observed mainly within 210 nm over the south
semicircle are beginning to organize into persistent bands.
Environmental conditions are very favorable for tropical
development as the low moves slowly northwestward and then
forecast to meander off the coast of North Carolina. This system
will likely become a tropical depression. Refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 26W and is
estimated to be progressing west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 10N within 210 nm east of the
wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind
shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N to 17N along 57W, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 75 nm either side of a line from
07N53W to 12N61W.

A tropical wave is moving west across the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize and Guatemala accompanied by scattered thunderstorms
mainly to the north of 15N. The northern extent of this wave
will pass west across the southwest Gulf of Mexico early net
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 17N16W through the tropical wave at 09N26W, then turns
northwest to 11N39W where it loses identity in the cyclonic
circulation associated with Hurricane Beryl. An ITCZ forms
southwest of Beryl near 07N48W and extends west to 06N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with Hurricane Beryl and the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm either side of line from 08N13W to 07N23W to
09N41W to 03N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low level trough analyzed south of 24N along 93W will shift
southwest tonight and then meander across the far southwest gulf
waters through at least Sat. A surface trough analyzed north of
24N along 85W will move west across the northern gulf waters
overnight reaching the Texas coast on Sat. A surface high is
analyzed at 23N98W.  Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed west of 94W and across the northeast
waters near the trough. A tropical wave currently passing west
across the Yucatan Peninsula will pass through the Bay of
Campeche on Sat. Thereafter, a surface trough will move westward
off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds
across the southwest gulf waters through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave
that will pass through the Windwards tonight and pass through
the east Caribbean on Sat. Near gale-force winds will continue
off the northwest coast of Colombia through 48 hours. Otherwise,
isolated moderate convection is streaming west across the the
eastern Caribbean in moderate trades.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features Section for information on
Hurricane Beryl and a surface low over the northwest discussion
waters that has a high potential for development. Two tropical
waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser
Antilles, see the Tropical Waves section for more information.

Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong winds across the
Canary Islands. For additional details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along
about 33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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