[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.6N 45.1W at 06/0900 UTC, or
about 1140 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving
west at 12 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is flaring within 120 nm
of the center. Beryl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
on Sat, and then continue to weaken into early next week.
Increased winds and rainfall are likely to accompany Beryl as it
passes through the Lesser  Antilles. Refer to the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for additional details.

A well-defined surface low is located about midway between the
southeastern United States and Bermuda and accompanied by
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are favorable for gradual development over the next couple of
days as the low moves slowly northwestward and later northward
off the coast of North Carolina. This system has a high chance
of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for additional information.

A Gale Warning is in effect across the south-central Caribbean
along the northwest coast of Colombia.  A recent scatterometer
pass indicated minimal gale force conditions from 10.5N to 14N
between 73W and 78W with seas forecast of 9 to 14 ft.  The winds
are forecast to diminish to near gale force late this morning
and persist through about 48 hours. Refer to the latest High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 24.5W and is
estimated to be progressing west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed south of 10N within 150 nm of the wave
axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift
along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N to 17N along 56W, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 10N within 180 nm east of the
wave and from 07N to 12N within 240 nm west of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving west across the northwest Caribbean
including the Yucatan Channel accompanied by scattered
thunderstorms mainly to the north of 17N. This convection will
move across northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
throughout the day.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 14N16W through the tropical wave at 09N24.W, then
turns west to 10N39W where it loses identity in the cyclonic
circulation associated with Hurricane Beryl. An ITCZ forms
southwest of Beryl near 07N47W and extends west to 06N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with T.S. Beryl and the tropical
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm either side of line from 09N13W to 09N37W to
03N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low level troughs are analyzed south of 24N along 92W and north
of 25N along 86W. A surface high is analyzed at 27N92W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms observed around the
periphery of the high, generally within 180 nm of the coast.
The trough over the northeast waters will move west across the
northern waters today through Sat. A tropical wave currently
passing west through the Yucatan Channel will pass through the
Bay of Campeche on Sat.  Thereafter, a surface trough will move
westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing
nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning
off the northwest coast of Colombia. See the Tropical Waves for
details on two tropical waves that will affect the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days. Otherwise, isolated moderate
convection is streaming west across the the eastern Caribbean in
moderate trades.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features Section for information on
Hurricane Beryl and a surface low over the northwest waters that
has a high potential for development. Two tropical waves are
between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, see
the Tropical Waves section for more information.

Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds across the Canary
Islands and regional waters, with near gale force winds between
islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast. The link to their Met Area home page is
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along
33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern
periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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