[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050434
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends along 38W from 03N-15N with a small area
of low pressure located near 10.5N38W. The shower activity
associated with these features continues to become better organized.
A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
for development when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A recent
scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds in the NW
quadrant of the low center.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form before the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development based on latest Tropical Weather
Outlook.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Another tropical wave is along 46W from 03N-15N. This wave shows
up well in the moisture product and is surrounding by African
dust. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the wave
encounters the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis
is along 71W, and extends from Hispaniola to near Lake Maracaibo
in western Venezuela. Convection is limited near the wave's axis
with only isolated showers and tstms. This system will reach the
western Caribbean Thu and move west of the area by Sat.

A tropical wave is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Its axis is
along 87W crossing the Gulf of Honduras and northern central
America. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
behind the wave's axis over Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Scattered
showers with embedded tstms are noted over the remainder of
Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica. This wave is forecast to move
west of the area tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the W coast
of Africa near 13N17W then continues to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N39W to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N-10N between 22W-30W, and from 02N-07N between 33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and tstms are noted over Florida and the eastern
Gulf, particularly N of 24N E of 91W. This convective activity is
the result of a surface trough, interacting with an upper-level
trough that extends from the NE Gulf to the central Bay of
Campeche. Convection has also flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula
just ahead of the trough aloft. The surface trough has moved from
the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. A recent ASCAT pass
shows the trough axis along 84W. The trough will move westward
across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the Texas coast Fri
night. Plenty of moisture will remain in place across the northern
Gulf, and the Gulf Coast States in association with this trough
through Fri. this will keep the likelihood of showers and tstms
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A thermal trough
will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and
enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please,
see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds across the east and central Caribbean while an altimeter
pass indicates seas near to 11 ft across the Caribbean waters S
of Haiti. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong trades are expected
across much of the area S of 18N and E of 83W through at least
Fri. Winds will reach near gale force near the coast of Colombia,
mainly at night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for
details. A weak trough of low pressure is S and SW of Bermuda.
Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure centered W of the
Azores near 36N36W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the
southern periphery of the ridge. As the high pressure builds
westward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, winds N
of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each afternoon and evening
the remainder of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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