[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized during the past few hours. The tropical wave
extends along 36W/37W from 03N-15N with a 1009 mb low pressure
near 10N36.5W. Some additional development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next day
or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, upper- level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development when
the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. Currently, the Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Another tropical wave is along 45W from 03N-15N. Isolated moderate
convection is where the wave encounters the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 70W, extending from Dominican Republic to western Venezuela.
Some shower activity is near the wave's axis. This wave will reach
the western Caribbean Thu and move west of the area by Sat.

A tropical wave is along 86W extending from the Yucatan Channel to
over central America. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong
convection is behind the wave's axis over Nicaragua and NE
Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
noted over the remainder of Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica.
This wave is forecast to move west of the area tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to the 1009 mb low pressure center. The ITCZ
extends from 08N38W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated to scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 14W-29W, and
from 02N-07N between 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will prevail
tonight over the NW waters in association with a trough over
eastern Texas. A surface trough east of Florida will move westward
into the Gulf waters tonight, supporting some shower and tstm
activity. The trough will shift westward across the northern
waters, reaching the coast of Texas Fri night. A surface trough
will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and
enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about the
two tropical waves that are in the area.

A recent ASCAT pass provides observations of fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean between 72W-78W. Fresh winds
are noted over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to
strong trades are expected across much of the area S of 18N and E
of 83W through at least Fri. Winds will reach near gale force near
the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, tonight through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is moving W over Florida generating scattered
showers and tstms. High pressure will build across the region
through the weekend. Winds N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong
each afternoon and evening the remainder of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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