[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N35W to 02N36W and
is moving W around 10 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of
moisture as noted in the TPW product, but African dust surrounds
the northern side of the wave and is inhibiting convection there.
Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave meets the
monsoon trough from 01N to 10N between 30W and 38W.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 05N-19N. This feature is moving
W around 10 kt. The low level cloud field associated with this
wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. This wave shows up well in
the TPW animation where a pronounced bulge of moisture is
observed. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave's
axis S of 15N. Th wave will move across the Windward Islands this
evening, entering the eastern Caribbean tonight. Expect scattered
showers and isolated tstms with the wave passage.

A tropical wave has an axis extending along 80W from central Cuba
to the coast of Panama, moving westward at around 15 knots. The
wave is well depicted in the moisture product. The monsoon trough
extends E over the SW Caribbean from Costa Rica to northern
Colombia. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are noted ahead of the wave's axis. This convective
activity is affecting parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. The wave
will move west of the area by Thu.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then extends SW to 05N37W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N37W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is near 10N26W, and near 08N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends SW from a weak 1014 mb surface low centered near
the mouth of the Mississippi to near 28N94W. Scattered to numerous
showers and tstms are noted near the low/trough and over Louisiana.
Lightning density indicates frequent lightning with much of the
observed convection. This system is forecast to weaken and slowly
move W toward NE Texas through Wed.

The remainder of the Gulf remains under the influence of a weak
ridge extending W from the Atlantic. This system is producing
mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft across
much of the Gulf waters. This pattern will change little over the
next 24-48 hours. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds over
the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
see the Tropical Waves section for details. A recent ASCAT pass
provides observations of fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere S of 18N
E of 80W. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean.
Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean
tonight. Marine guidance suggests winds in the 25-30 kt range
over the south-central Caribbean, with building seas to 10-12 ft
by early Wed morning. Near gale force NE winds are possible near
the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, reflection of an upper level cyclonic circulation,
extends from 32N71W to the central Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are seen ahead of the trough forecast
to move across the NW Bahamas and over Florida Wed and Wed night.
A second trough will develop near Bermuda and extending SW into
the forecast waters. This trough will shift NW of the area by the
end of the week. High pressure will build in its wake. Winds N of
Hispaniola will pulse to strong speed each day during the
afternoon and evening beginning on Wed.

Surface high pressure of 1032 mb located W of the Azores extends
a ridge across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted along the
southern periphery of the ridge.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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