[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and
40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. The low level cloud field
associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to
15N between 50W and 60W, and from 08N to 13N between 60W and 64W
in parts of the SE Caribbean Sea and Venezuela and Trinidad and
Tobago. The moisture that is associated with this wave will a
modest increase in the chances for rainshowers for the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands during the next day or so.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 22N in Cuba
southward, across Jamaica. The wave is moving westward 20 knots.
Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N
southward between 80W and Central America. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers cover the area from 11N to 14N between 80W and
85W, in the Caribbean Sea and in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea
from 18N southward between 74W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N22W, 07N30W, and 05N37W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N37W to 05N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers from 04N to 13N between Africa and
30W, and from 08N southward between 40W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves from west central Alabama to a 1014 mb
low pressure center that is along the coast of Mississippi and SE
Louisiana near 32N88W. The trough continues from the low pressure
center to 25N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico. Middle level to
upper level cyclonic wind flow is on top of the trough/1014 mb
low pressure center. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
along the Louisiana coast, from 28N to 30N between 90W and 93W.
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from
26N northward between 87W and 96W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the remainder of the area from 87W westward.'

The rainshowers that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W eastward
are related to an upper level 29N74W cyclonic circulation center,
and the associated cyclonic wind flow, that are covering parts of
the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.

Expect rainshowers with thunder to be associated with the 1014 mb
low pressure center and trough, as this feature moves W slowly,
toward NE Texas through Wednesday. A surface ridge in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico will prevail through Saturday
night. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through Saturday, and help to enhance nocturnal winds in
the SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about the
77W/78W tropical wave.

The 77W/78W tropical wave will move west of the area on Thursday.
A second tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic
and enter the eastern Caribbean Sea today. The second tropical
wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and the
western Caribbean Sea on Friday. Fresh winds in the central
Caribbean Sea will become strong, from Wednesday through Friday
night. Near gale force NE winds are possible near the coast of
Colombia on Thursday night and on Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N74W, about
240 nm to the NNE of the NW Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow that is moving around the 29N74W center covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward between 65W and
85W. A surface trough is along 32N71W 28N75W 24N77W in the
Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean from
20N to 32N between 65W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 24N
northward between 57W and 65W.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N48W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 29N to 33N between 46W and 55W.

The current 32N71W 28N75W 24N77W surface trough will move across
the NW Bahamas and over Florida on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will build in its wake. The wind speeds to the N of
Hispaniola will pulse to strong each day during the afternoon and
evening beginning on Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net