[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern
Atlantic and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia will
support the development of strong-to-minimal gale force easterly
winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours through Friday, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea
heights are expected to be in the range of 9 feet to 14 feet
within this area. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has moved into the western Caribbean and a strong
high pressure prevails in the wave if the front across the Gulf
waters. A surface trough extends from 21N95W to 19N93W. The
pressure gradient is still strong enough to support gale force
winds south of 20.5N and west of the trough. Expect for these
conditions to continue through the evening hours. Please
read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N15W to 01N29W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ
boundary between 22W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1035 mb high
centered near 34N87W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends
across the southern Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 19N93W.
Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the
trough. The trough will meander across the southwest Gulf waters
through Saturday. A surface low is expected to develop in this
area this weekend, moving northeast with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia.

A cold front has entered the west Caribbean waters, extending
from 22N84W to 18N88W. Scattered showers prevail across the
remainder of the basin transported by moderate to fresh trades.
Strong to minimal gale-force trade winds are forecast along the
the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
through the weekend. The front will stall from Central Cuba to
Belize and gradually dissipate by Friday. Strengthening high
pressure in the wake of the front will produce fresh to locally
strong northeast winds across the northwest Caribbean by late
today, with strong to near-gale force northeast flow spreading
across the northeast Caribbean through Saturday. Moderate to
fresh trades will prevail across the area through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N66W to
23N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side
of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N63W to
22N65W. Another trough extends from 23N45W to 16N48W. Scattered
showers prevail along the second trough. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1040 mb high centered near 40N29W. The cold front will continue
moving southeast, stalling from 24N65W to northwest Cuba on
Friday evening, then dissipating between 20N and 23N by Saturday
night. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net