[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
northern Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale
force NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during
the overnight hours through Friday, and possibly into the
upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in the range
of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Cold front 25N80W to 23N86W, then
stationary 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. NW gale force winds prevail S of
21N and west of the front. Seas will range between 8-14 ft. The
surface pressure gradient in the far SW Gulf along the coast of
Mexico in the vicinity of Veracruz has become tighter, as the
surface ridge that extends from strong high pressure centered in
eastern Texas presses southward along eastern Mexico and toward
the SW Gulf of Mexico. the tight pressure gradient from the
building ridge will maintain these conditions today, before
diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds in the evening hours. Please
read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W,
and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold/stationary front, and the associated gale-force northerly
winds.

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1033 mb high
centered near 33N88W. A surface trough extends across the southern
Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are spread across the Gulf of Mexico, in areas of
broken low level clouds. A stationary front from 25N80W to 21N93W
will dissipate through tonight. A trough will meander across the
SW Gulf waters from 22N96W to 18N93W through Saturday. The trough
will lift N as a warm front on Saturday night, with a surface low
developing along the front near 27N92W. The low will move NE on
Sunday, passing across the Florida Big Bend on Sunday night, and
drag a cold front across the Eastern Gulf waters by sunrise on
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.
Rainshowers are from 17N to 25N between 64W and 68W, from the
waters that are just to the south of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic
Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are also noted from 12N
northward from 80W westward. Strong to minimal gale force trade
winds are forecast along the the NW coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours through the weekend. A slowly-moving cold front
will stall on Thursday, from Central Cuba to Belize and gradually
dissipate through Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the wake
of the front will produce fresh to locally strong NE winds across
the NW Caribbean by late today, with strong to near gale force NE
flow spreading E across the NE Caribbean on Friday night through
Saturday. Conditions will improve across the Caribbean Sea from
the NW beginning late Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trades
will continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from
Saturday through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, and southwestward to 26N77W.
The front becomes stationary at 26N77W, and it continues from the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 21N93W in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N62W to 26N70W to
20N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean, and across much of the Gulf of
Mexico. To the east, a surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N
to 26N. A second surface trough is along 62W/63W from 23N to 31N.
Isolated rainshowers are from 18N to 25N between 44W and 50W.
The cold front segment will continue SE, stalling from 24N65W to
NW Cuba on Friday evening, with remnants of the front gradually
dissipating between 20N and 23N through Saturday night. The W part
of the front will lift N as a warm front across the Straits of
Florida on Sunday night. The western part of the front will be
ahead of a surface low, that is racing NE off the NE Florida coast
and dragging a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on
Monday, reaching the Central Bahamas late Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA
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