[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 978 mb low pressure center is near 39N15W, about 270 nm to the
west of Portugal. A cold front is connected with the low center,
and it passes through Morocco, beyond 26N15W in the Western
Sahara, to 23N18W. A surface trough continues from 23N18W to
19N30W, and 18N41W. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas
Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...
BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas:
IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK,
for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until
02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale
or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, AGADIR, and CASABLANCA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 01N12W. The ITCZ continues from 01N12W,
crossing the Equator along 13W, to 04S24W, to 03S38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N southward from 09W eastward. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers from 13N southward between 30W and 50W, and
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through 29N76W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida near 28N81W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The
surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively
flat.

Moderate-to-fresh S winds generated by a ridge, that extends W
across the Gulf, will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front that
will be moving into the northern Gulf early on Thursday. Strong
northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico
until Friday evening. The front will stall from western Cuba to
near Veracruz Mexico on Friday night, and then dissipate on
Saturday. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf on
Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge passes through Cuba to the western half of Panama.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 19N60W, to 15N70W
and 13N79W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-
broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of
the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are: 0.74 in in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.18 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas,
0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica.

High pressure north of the area will support moderate-to-fresh
trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night
off the coast of Colombia through late week. Large NE swell will
impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday, with
an even more significant N swell event penetrating the NE
Caribbean Sea on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature.
A 978 mb low pressure center is near 39N15W, about 270 nm to the
west of Portugal. A cold front is connected with the low center,
and it passes through Morocco, beyond 26N15W in the Western
Sahara, to 23N18W. A surface trough continues from 23N18W to
19N30W, and 18N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 16N northward
from 50W eastward.

A cold front extends from a 35N36W 1001 mb low pressure center,
through 32N36W, to 30N40W, 27N50W, and 25N64W. A surface trough
continues from 25N64W to 26N73W, and 24N77W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 18N
northward from 50W and 80W.

A weak surface ridge along 29N will shift eastward, ahead of a
cold front moving off the NE Florida coast late on Thursday. The
front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon.
This will happen just ahead of a reinforcing front, which will
generate strong to gale-force winds north of 24N east of 75W, as
deep low pressure moves off the Virginia coast. The fronts will
merge on Saturday, and stall from 22N65W to the Windward Passage
by Sunday, before dissipating Monday. A significant swell event,
and likely the largest of this winter season, will accompany this
system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas by the
end of this week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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