[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010046 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

CORRECTED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 974 mb low pressure center is near 37N19W, to the east of the
Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center,
and it passes through Morocco, beyond 27N14W in the Western
Sahara, to 23N18W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N18W to
20N25W, and 19N31W. A surface trough continues from 19N31W to
18N41W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast,
that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly
near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, AGADIR, and CASABLANCA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from 01N14W,
crossing the Equator along 17W, to 01S26W, to 01S33W, and to
02S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 03N southward between 14W and 18W. isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers elsewhere from 11N southward from
60W eastward. A surface trough is along 06N34W 03N34W 01N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge passes Florida near 28N81W, to the Gulf of
Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The surface
pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively flat.

Moderate to fresh S winds generated by a ridge, that extends W
across the Gulf, will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front
that will be moving into the northern Gulf early on Thursday.
Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of
Mexico until Friday evening. The front will stall from the
Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by Friday night, then
dissipate on Saturday. A ridge will build across the northern
Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge passes Florida near 28N81W, to the Gulf of
Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough passes through the northern part of the
Windward passage, to southern Haiti. Scattered-to-broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers span Hispaniola.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 19N60W, to 15N70W
and 13N79W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-
broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts
of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W
westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are: 0.74 in in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.18 in St. Thomas in
the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in Nassau
in the Bahamas, 0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica.

High pressure north of the area will support moderate-to-fresh
trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night
off Colombia through late week. Large NE swell will impact the
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday, with an even
more significant N swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean
Sea on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature. A
974 mb low pressure center is near 37N19W, to the east of the
Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center,
and it passes through Morocco, beyond 27N14W in the Western
Sahara, to 23N18W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N18W to
20N25W, and 19N31W. A surface trough continues from 19N31W to
18N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 16N northward from 50W
eastward.

A warm front extends from a 1000 mb low pressure center that is
near 34N38W, to 32N35W, and 30N36W. A cold front extends from
the 34N38W low center, to 30N44W, 26N60W, and 25N64W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 25N64W to 26N71W,
and 25N76W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 18N northward from 50W and 80W.

The current stationary front will dissipate by Thursday night.
Fresh S to SW flow will increase late on Thursday off NE
Florida, ahead of another cold front moving off the coast on
Thursday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Friday, just ahead of a reinforcing front
which will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N as
deep low pressure moves off the Virginia coast. The fronts will
merge on Saturday, and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage
by Sunday. A significant swell event and likely the largest of
this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all the
waters E of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of this week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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