[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale force strength from 10.5N to 13N between
73.5W and 77W. Waveheights within the area of gale force winds
will range from 12-14 feet. These winds are forecast to diminish
below gale force on Fri. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from  the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of 05N
between 26W and 38W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere S of
10N and E of 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front that moved into the far NW Gulf during the
overnight hours is along a position from near the Texas/SW
Louisiana border to a 1019 mb low at 27N96W and to inland the far
NE coast of Mexico as of 09Z this morning. Isolated showers are
along and NW of the front and low per latest NWS radar imagery.
The cold front is forecast to become stationary before lifting
back N as a warm front today. Strong high pressure across the W
Atlantic Ocean will maintain a ridge extending W across the U.S.A.
Gulf coast states in order to produce fresh return flow across
most of the basin, except for strong winds through the Straits of
Florida and across central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak
cold front is expected to drift into the far NW Gulf on Sat night,
then become stationary. The gradient associated with strong high
pressure that extends from western Atlantic to over the eastern
and central gulf waters will maintain fresh east to southeast to
the E of the front and low, with the exception of strong east
winds across the Straits of Florida through tonight before
diminishing to mainly fresh winds on Friday as the ridge weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast
of Colombia.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through Sat.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean today, with nocturnal winds
expected to pulse one more night to gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the
weekend leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an upper low dropping southward
N of the area at 34N28W through 32N29W to 24N38W, then continues
as a cyclonic shear axis to 23N46W to 21N56W and to the NE
Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front that is along
a position from 32N23W to 21N29W, and as shear line to 18N49W to
17N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea at 17N71W. Broken low
level clouds with isolated showers  are to the NW and N of the
line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W, to 16N40W 15N60W, and
to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N
through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through the
weekend. Gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with
fresh to strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will
move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday
night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE
Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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