[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 10.5N to 13N between
73.5W and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds
will range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing
the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is
to the south of the line 23N17W 17N40W 16N50W 14N68W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is along the Texas Gulf coast. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N99W in Mexico,
to 31N95W in east Texas/the upper Texas coast.

The current weak cold front that is along the Texas coast will
drift into the coastal waters tonight and stall before moving
inland on Thursday. Strong high pressure across the W Atlantic
Ocean will maintain a ridge extending W across the U.S.A. Gulf
coast states in order to produce fresh return flow across most
of the basin, except for strong winds through the Straits of
Florida and across central sections of the Gulf of Mexico.
A weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters on Saturday
night, and stall there through the remainder of the weekend into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.46 in Guadeloupe.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the
end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through
Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force winds off the
coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the
weekend into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 26N31W, 22N37W,
23N48W, 16N57W, and to 14N63W in the Caribbean Sea. The trough
supports a cold front, that passes through 32N24W to 22N30W to
20N35W. A shear line continues from 20N35W to 18N50W, 17N60W,
across the NE Caribbean Sea, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the
NW and N of the line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W,
to 16N40W 15N60W, and to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N
through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through the
weekend. Gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with
fresh-to- strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will
move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday
night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE
Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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