[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant  with the gale force winds
are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
S of the axis between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm S of the axis between 20W-23W, and also N of the
axis within 30 nm of line from 02N24W to 03N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The western extension of Atlantic across the area is maintaining
pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the basin. In
addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts abundant dry air
in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are
light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the
area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout,
and little change is expected through Sun. A weak surface trough
extends into the NE Gulf from the Florida panhandle along a
position from near 30N85W southwestward to near 27N87W. Only
isolated showers are near this trough. Areas of dense fog are
expected over portions of gulf mainly N of about 27N tonight into
Sat producing sharply reduced visibilities. Little change in the
present synoptic pattern is expected through Sun, however, winds
and seas are forecast to increase by early next week when high
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the
area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high over
the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressures found over
northern South America. No significant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sun and early next week when
the gradient tightens from stronger high pressure that builds to
the N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 28N-32N between 41W- 45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted over the deep tropics from 2N-6N between
43W-50W in association with a surface trough and diffluent flow
aloft. No significant weather is occurring over the eastern
Atlantic, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the trade
wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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