[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through the weekend. The sea heights in this region are
forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N10W and
continues to 02N18W, with the ITCZ extending southwestward from
there. The ITCZ dips below the equator around 24W. Scattered
moderate convection is located within 180 n mi of the boundaries
between 17W and 23W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Quiet weather conditions continue across the Gulf of Mexico today
supported by the western extension of a surface ridge and abundant
dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are
light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the
area. Sea heights are also low, except over the northwestern
waters where reports have been around 5 ft. A weak surface trough
is lingering over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is only
producing a patch of clouds and isolated showers. Little change in
the pattern is expected to occur on Saturday, but winds and seas are
forecast to increase by early next week when high pressure
strengthens over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are occurring across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in
the area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high over the
western Atlantic and the typical lower pressure region over
northern South America. No signiciant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sunday and early next week
when high pressure builds to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and a stable air
mass aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low and
accompanying surface trough is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 28N-32N between 40W-46W. Similar activity is
occurring over the deep tropics from 2N-5N between 43W-50W in
association with a surface trough and diffluent flow aloft. No
significant weather is occurring over the eastern Atlantic, but
scatterometer data does indicate that the trade wind flow is fresh
to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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