[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia
this weekend. These conditions will materialize during the late
night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 06N11W and
continues to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05S36W.
Scattered showers are observed along the monsoon trough between
10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic, extends its ridge
across northern Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf. This scenario
supports a moderate return flow across the basin with locally
fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western portion of
the basin, light to gentle southeast winds prevail. A surface
trough extends from 29N96W to 19N94W. A diffluent flow aloft to
the east of the trough supports scattered moderate convection
mainly north of 24N 89W-95W. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon,
then extending from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico on Monday
morning where it will stall and dissipate by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable, dry air
across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair
weather conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow
moisture across the basin that support isolated showers, especially
across Hispaniola where a surface trough extends across the
Windward Passage. Fresh to near gale-force east winds are in the
central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High
pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the
north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are expected
to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon. These
winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of the
upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1043 mb high in
the north Atlantic and a 1039 mb high southwest of the Azores
extends across the basin. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as
a surface trough extending from 28N68W to 20N73W. Isolated showers
are observed within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter west
Atlantic waters by early Wednesday morning. The front will then
stall and dissipate by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net