[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These winds are
expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning
hours over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W
and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that last coordinate
to 01N30W to 01S46W. Scattered showers are near the Gulf of
Guinea N of the Equator E of the prime meridian and from 4S to
10S between 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered in the NW Atlc extends a ridge axis
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf, thus supporting
the continuation of moderate return flow in the eastern basin with
locally fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western
basin, a reduced pressure gradient supports light to gentle SE
flow. CIRA LPW imagery show low level moisture advection from the
Caribbean Sea, which along with a diffluent environment aloft
support scattered to isolated showers west of 91W and within 175
nm off the coast of Mississippi. High humidity in the NW Gulf
supports dense fog N of 26N W of 93W and potentially within 175 nm
off the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon,
extend from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico Monday morning where
it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16
water vapor imagery continue to show stable, dry air across most
of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather
conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture
across the basin that may support isolated passing showers,
especially across Hispaniola where a surface trough races west.
Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are in the central
Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High
pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the
north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are
expected to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon.
These winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of
the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging centered N of the area by a 1039 mb high in
the NW Atlc and a 1039 mb high SW of the Azores extends S across
the SW N Atlc, central and eastern basin, generally supporting
fair weather. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as a surface
trough extending from near 27N66W SW to inland central
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are possible within 120 nm either
side of the trough axis. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
forecast to enter SW N Atlc waters by early Wednesday morning. The
front will then stall and dissipate by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/NR
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