[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front
extends from a 1010 mb low located at 31N09W, to across eastern
Morocco and to across eastern and central sections of Western
Sahara and out over the far eastern Atlantic near 24N20W. Broken
to scattered low clouds are noted on either side of the front,
with possible isolated showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S35W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm S of the axis between 19W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03Z, a cold front extends from just W of Apalachicola to
27N90W to 25N95W to inland Mexico near Tampico. A pre-frontal
trough extends from just E of Apalachicola to 28N86W to 26N88W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm E of
the cold front N of 29N. Isolated showers are along the front S of
29N. Water vapor imagery shows extensive mid and upper broken to
overcast clouds moving from SW to NE over the NW and N Central
Gulf. Areas of rain along with scattered showers are underneath
these clouds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
the NW Gulf as well. High pressure is building southeastward
behind the cold front over the far NW Gulf. An Ascat pass from 03Z
last night highlighted NE 20-25 kt winds over the NW Gulf waters.

The cold front is forecast to shift southeastward through tonight,
then become stationary along 25N on Thu. Remnants of the front
will lift northward across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and
Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late
Sun. Strong northerly flow over the NW waters will shift
southward along the coast of Mexico through today, and persist
near Veracruz through early on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated showers are seen S of 20N W of 84W, and also from
Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala, in
areas of westward moving scattered to broken low-level clouds.
A small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
concentrated over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are also
E of 75W in patches of low-level moisture moving quickly
westward.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along and near the NW coast of Colombia through the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are forecast
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north
central passages through Fri. These conditions will spread
eastward across the eastern Caribbean Sea and continue through Sat
night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds, accompanied by large
east swell, will continue across the tropical waters through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers moving westward are noted E of the Bahamas.
Similar activity moving northwestward is N of 26N W of 71W,
and between the Bahamas and Cuba.

An elongated mid to upper level trough is along a position from
26N21W to 26N32W to 32N43W. Patches of low-level moisture moving
westward with possible isolated are noted from 19N to 30N between
40W and 50W.

The latest synoptic analysis reveals high pressure ridging
extending from a 1040 mb high center, that is located well N of
the area just to the SW of the Azores, southwestward through
32N55W and to near 29N79W. High pressure covers just about the
entire basin, except in the far eastern portion near the cold
front associated with the gale force winds occurring in the
METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast area. The tail end of this front
extends out over the eastern Atlantic from the Western Sahara to
near 24N20W. This portion of the front is quickly dropping
southward as it weakens. Broken to scattered low clouds moving
west-southwestward in the strong NE flow around the eastern side
of the Atlantic ridge are observed to the N of about 19N and E of
40W. Latest Ascat data depicted strong NE to E winds over this
area of the Atlantic.

The present Gulf of Mexico cold front will emerge off the NE
Florida early this morning, then stall from Bermuda to SE tonight.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected across the
tropical waters S of 22N through Fri. The pressure gradient along
the southern periphery of strong N Atlantic high pressure will
begin to tighten on Fri allowing for trades to increase
significantly over the waters S of 23N going into Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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