[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early
morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front
extends from a 1010 mb low located at 32N10W, to inland the coast
of Morocco near 28N12W, to 26N20W and NW to 29N28W. Isolated
showers are possible along and N of the cold front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S34W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 18W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from just E of Pensacola to 28N92W
and to 26N95W, where it becomes stationary to inland far northern
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N86W to 28N89W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm E of
the cold front N of 28N. Water vapor imagery shows extensive mid
and upper broken to overcast clouds moving from SW to NE over the
NW and N Central Gulf. Areas of rain along with scattered showers
are underneath these clouds.

High pressure is building southeastward behind the cold front
over the far NW Gulf.

The cold front is forecast to shift southeastward through tonight,
then become stationary along 25N on Thu. Remnants of the front
will lift northward across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and
Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Sunday. Strong northerly flow over the NW waters will shift
southward along the coast of Mexico tonight, and persist near
Veracruz through sunrise on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated showers are seen S of 20N W of 84W, and also from
Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala, in
areas of westward moving scattered to broken low level clouds.
Isolated showers are also E of 75W in patches of low level
moisture moving quickly westward.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean
Sea, including the north central passages through Fri. These
conditions then will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean
Sea and continue through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds, accompanied by large east swell, will continue across the
tropical waters through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers moving westward are noted E of the Bahamas.
Similar activity moving northwestward is N of 26N W of 71W,
and between the Bahamas and Cuba.

An upper level inverted trough is along 20N42W 25N43W 32N44W.
Isolated showers are possible from 20N to 30N between 40W and
50W.

Surface ridging is present generally between 30W and 60W.

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will emerge off
the NE Florida coast tonight, and then stall from Bermuda to
southeast Florida on Thu night. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected across the tropical waters S of 22N beginning
late on Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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