[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early
morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, to the Equator
along 27W, to 02S31W, 02S37W, and to 03S40W at the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 04N southward between 22W and 38W. Other
rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, toward 20N along the coast of Mexico. A
frontal boundary is in the Texas Gulf coastal plains.

The current Texas coastal plains front will accelerate
southeastward later today, and then stall east-to-west along 25N
on Thursday. Remnants of the front will move northward across the
northern gulf waters on Friday and Saturday ahead of a second
cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday. Strong northerly
wind flow will develop across the northwest waters late this
afternoon, with strong winds shifting southward along the coast
of Mexico tonight, and persisting near Veracruz through sunrise on
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean
Sea, including the north-central passages through Friday. These
strong wind conditions then will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea and continue through Saturday night. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds, accompanied by large east swell,
will continue across the tropical waters through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N60W to 30N66W.
A surface trough continues from 30N66W to 28N70W. A second surface
trough is along 31N60W 26N66W 21N70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
eastward.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight,
and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida on Thursday night.
Fresh to locally strong trades are expected across the tropical
waters south of 22N beginning late on Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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