[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
432 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N09W to 02N22W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ continues and dips to below the equator near 29W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of the axis
between 25W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
a line from 01N32W to 01N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 09Z, a cold front has
moved to just along the central Texas coast. Isolated showers are
over portions of the eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The
warm front will lift northward overnight as a cold front
approaches eastern Texas, and moves out over the NW Gulf by early
on Wed. Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of
the NW Gulf and along the coastal section of the N central gulf
tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by fresh
to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along
the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches
from central Florida to the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is
forecast to lift back northward as a weak warm front over the
western Gulf on Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current
synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W to
29N66W, where it becomes a trough to 28N70W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W.
The trough will dissipate by this evening. High pressure building
behind the front will support fresh to locally strong E winds
south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu
night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will expand northward to 25N
during the weekend. A surface trough is analyzed along a position
from near 30N60W to 25N66W to near 20N71W. Isolated showers are
along and within 60 nm SE of the trough axis N of 27N. The portion
of the trough S of 27N appears to be diffusing with time. A cold
front is forecast to emerge off the SE United States coast early
on Thu, and move across the NW waters of the discussion area
during Thu. The front will then become stationary from near
Bermuda to southeastern Florida by Thu night. The pressure
gradient associated with high pressure that will build behind this
upcoming cold front will induce fresh NE winds along with seas
building to the range of 6-10 ft to the NW waters Thu night and
Fri. Winds are forecast to diminish on Fri as the high pressure
shifts eastward, and the western portion of the front lifts back
to the N as a warm front.

The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward
across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N
and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery
of high over the Atlantic waters tightens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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