[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in
northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week,
generally during the late night and early morning hours. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from
02N19W to 0N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the monsoon and the ITCZ
between 16W and 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough off the eastern CONUS coast
supports a cold front across central Florida entering the Gulf
near 26N82W and continuing to 26N87W where it transitions to a
stationary front. The stationary front extends from 26N87W to
26N91W to 27N95W to Brownsville, Texas. Platforms over the
northwest Gulf continue to report some small areas of fog, however
it should clear up later this afternoon as dry air continue to
filter into the region behind the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
across the region. The front will dissipate as it lifts northward
along the northern Gulf coast through early Tue. Another cold
front will move into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow the front
mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position
from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Thu before
lifting northward over the western Gulf and weakening Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support gale
force winds off the coast of Colombia at night through Wednesday.
Seas during this period will be between 8 to 11 ft over much of
the south central and southwest Caribbean, and generally 5 to 7
elsewhere in the basin. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show dry,
stable conditions from low to upper levels across the basin.
However, CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture that
may support isolated passing showers this afternoon as a fast-
moving surface trough moves between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. The
ongoing atmospheric pattern will continue to support fresh to
strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of
Hispaniola through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia each
night. High pressure building over the central Atlc will continue
to support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands,
accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N74W SW to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida with isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the
front. Fresh to strong southerly flow is north of 29N east of the
front to 70W with seas to 9 ft forecast through tonight. The
front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida this evening, stall
from 29N65W to the Straights of Florida late Tue, then dissipate
by mid week. High pressure will build behind the front, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong E winds south of 22N by mid week. Farther
east, a trough is analyzed north of western Puerto Rico drifting
westward, however lacking convection. The Azores high, anchored
by a 1038 mb high west of the islands, extends a ridge axis
southward across the central and eastern Atlc where latest
scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net