[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
559 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in
northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly during the late night and
early morning hours, through the middle of the week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S38W near the
coast of Brazil. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
from 03S to 01N between 32W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers are lingering over the southeast Gulf ahead of a
front reaching from the Florida Big Bend area to the central
coast of Texas. The showers and thunderstorms will weaken and
shift eastward through the early morning. Platforms over the
northwest Gulf are reporting areas of fog with visibilities around
4 nm. This will clear up later this morning as drier air filters
into the region behind the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the
region.

The front will dissipate as it lifts northward over the western
Gulf through early Tue, ahead of another cold front moving into
the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas building to 8 ft will follow the front mainly off the coast
of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to
the southwest Gulf by late Thu before lifting northward over the
western Gulf and weakening Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area is supporting gale force winds
off the coast of Colombia, as verified by vessel 9HA3047
earlier. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the south central and
southwest Caribbean, and generally 5 to 7 elsewhere in the
Caribbean. Recent buoy observations over the tropical Atlantic
indicate NE to E swell and locally derived wind waves due to
fresh trade wind flow have reached the Leeward and Windward
Islands and may be pushing into exposed Atlantic passages. No
significant convection is observed due to mainly zonal westerly
flow aloft, but fast- moving trade wind showers are likely from
the tropical north Atlantic west of 55W through the southwest
Caribbean.

The pattern will continue to support fresh to strong winds off
Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of Hispaniola
through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night. High
pressure building over the central Atlc will continue to support
fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied
by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving off the northeast Florida coast. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are noted in advance of the
front, as are fresh to strong southerly flow north of 30N. Recent
buoy observations and altimeter satellite passes indicate 5 to 7
ft seas in open waters. The front will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late today, stall from 29N65W to the Straights
of Florida late Tue, then dissipate by mid week. High pressure
will build behind the front, supporting fresh to occasionally
strong E winds south of 22N by mid week.

Farther east, a trough is analyzed north of the Leeward Islands
drifting westward, followed by a large area of fresh easterly
flow. Recent buoy observations and altimeter satellite data
indicates seas of 8 to 11 ft across the central Atlantic, mainly
in NE to E swell. No significant convection is observed although
isolated trade wind showers are likely.

Over the eastern Atlantic, no gale warnings are in effect south of
32N, but strong to near gale force winds are evident from the
coast of Morocco to through the Cabo Verde Islands with seas 8 to
10 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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