[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in
northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through mid
week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 04N08W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01S40W to
01S51W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm either
side of the ITCZ and within 90 nm either side of the monsoon
trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlc extends a ridge
axis SW across most of the Florida Peninsula and into the SE Gulf,
thus supporting moderate to fresh southerly flow. A cold front
extends from the coast of Louisiana to Houston, Texas, however it
lacks convection. Instead, dense fog advisories continue in effect
for coastal areas from north Texas to southeast Louisiana through
later this afternoon. Patchy sea fog is possible tonight into
early Mon as the moist southerly flow reaches the cooler coastal
waters off southwest Florida. A surface trough is ahead of the
front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the north-central
Gulf waters near 27N91W. Scattered showers are within 210 nm east
of the trough axis N of 27N, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of NW Florida. Also, fresh to strong winds are in the NE
gulf in the vicinity of the trough as indicated by latest
scatterometer data. The front will move across the Florida
Peninsula Monday through Monday night. However, the portion of the
front over the Gulf will stall Monday afternoon before it lifts
back north early Tuesday morning. Easterly flow will increase
over the eastern Gulf late Mon into Tue as high pressure builds
north of the area. Another somewhat stronger front will move into
the northwest Gulf Wed afternoon. Strong winds and seas building 8
to 10 ft will follow the front mainly along the coast of Mexico
through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds persist over the central Caribbean as
shown by latest scatterometer data. Winds will continue to pulse
to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
each night through Thu night. The aerial extent and the strength
of the trades are forecast to increase east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft
by early Mon, and over most of the east and central Caribbean on
Tue as high pressure builds N of the area. Early on Wed, seas will
build to 14 or 15 ft near the coast of Colombia. Winds have
diminished to 20 kt or less in the lee of Cuba and through the
Windward Passage, but will increase to 20-25 kt on Mon night. Seas
are forecast to build to to 8 ft in the Windward Passage by Tue
night, and to 6-7 ft in the lee of Cuba by early Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

With lack of support aloft, a stationary front continues to
dissipate in the SW N Atlc along 30N59W SW to 26N73W. Besides this
weak frontal boundary, surface ridging continues to build across
the SW N Atlc. Ahead of the front, a surface trough along 28N57W
to 18N59W continues to race westward, however lacking convection.
The remainder central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of
the Azores high centered by a 1040 mb high just north of the
islands. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late
tonight, will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue
before stalling near 30N59W to the southern Bahamas Wed morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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