[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
537 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through
mid week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, to the
Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, and 03S37W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N
southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extending along 25N from the
Florida Keys to the central Gulf remains the focus of a few
showers over the southeastern Gulf. Moist southerly flow is
evident across the remainder of the Gulf, influenced by low
pressure moving across the lower Mississippi Valley. A few showers
are ongoing over the north central and northeast Gulf. Meanwhile,
dense fog advisories are in effect for coastal areas from north
Texas to southwest Louisiana through mid morning. Patchy sea fog
is possible tonight into early Mon as the moist southerly flow
reaches the cooler coastal waters off southwest Florida.

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf tonight then stall,
before lifting north and dissipating through late Mon. Easterly
flow will increase over the eastern Gulf late Mon into Tue as high
pressure builds north of the area. Another somewhat stronger
front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed. Strong winds and seas
building 8 to 10 ft will follow the front mainly along the coast
of Mexico through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds persist over the eastern and central
Caribbean this morning, supporting isolated fast moving showers
as noted in the latest Caribbean radar mosaic display. In
addition to the strong to gale force winds off Colombia, a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong northeast
winds through the Windward Passage, and off the south coast of
Hispaniola. Seas are likely 8 ft in these areas, with 5 to 7 ft in
most other areas. This includes the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, but buoy and
altimeter satellite data farther east confirm the approach of
higher seas, likely longer period NE to E swell. Seas to 8 ft will
reach the Leeward Islands by late tonight, and the Windward
Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, trade wind flow will increase
and seas will build slightly across the Caribbean and tropical
north Atlantic west of 55W by mid week as high pressure builds
north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N55W to 26N70W then
dissipating through 25N80W. Showers are likely along and to the
north of the stationary boundary. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E flow north of the
front, where 8 to 10 ft seas are observed. The front will dissipate through
today as it lifts north of the area through late today followed
by fresh to strong southerly flow. Another cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast late tonight will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting north
through mid week.

Farther east over the central Atlantic, a quasi-stationary
surface trough remains along 54W/55W north of 20N. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are noted east of the trough, with 8 to 10 ft
seas primarily in NE to E swell. No significant weather is noted
other than typical isolated trade wind showers.

Over the eastern Atlantic, no warnings are in effect from Meteo
France at this time, but strong to near gale force NE winds
persist from the coast of Morocco to the Cabo Verde Islands, with
fresh to strong NE to E winds elsewhere north of 10N. Seas remain
8 to 11 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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