[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between
74W and 77W, mainly at night, through the weekend. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, to the
Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, and 03S37W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N
southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An east-to-west oriented stationary front cuts across the Florida
Keys, and into the central Gulf of Mexico, along 25N from 80W to
90W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the entire area
of the Gulf of Mexico, in the coastal plains from Texas to
Florida, and in interior areas of south Florida, in areas of
scattered to broken low level clouds.

The current stationary front will dissipate overnight. Another
cold front will move into the Gulf late on Sunday, and stall
along 24N through late Monday. The front will lift N through
Tuesday, ahead of a stronger cold front that is expected to move
into the NW Gulf on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale-force off the coast
of Colombia each night through Thursday night. Fresh-to-strong NE
winds are expected through tonight in the lee of Cuba, through
the Windward Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic,
including the Mona Passage. The aerial extent and the strength of
the trade winds are forecast to increase across the Tropical N
Atlantic Ocean waters on Monday, and in most of the east and
central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday as high pressure builds N of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N57W to 28N64W. The front becomes
stationary from 28N64W, across the NW Bahamas, to the Florida
Keys, and beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N56W to
18N62W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 27W and 55W. A surface trough is along 54W/55W
from 20N to 30N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N
to 32N between 40W and 60W.

The current cold front will stall along 26N/27N overnight, then
lift N of the area late on Sunday, ahead of another cold front
that will be moving off the NE Florida coast on Sunday night. The
second cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by
early Tuesday, before stalling and then lifting N through mid
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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