[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between
74W and 77W, mainly at night, through the weekend. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the
Equator along 25W, to 02S33W, and 03S41W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N
southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A east-to-west oriented stationary front cuts through the
central Gulf of Mexico, along 25N from 80W to 95W. A surface
trough is within 60 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 25N
to 29N. Precipitation: rainshowers span the entire area of the
waters, and in the coastal plains from Texas to Florida, and in
interior areas of south Florida, in areas of scattered to broken
low level clouds.

The current stationary front will lift northward through this
evening. Weak low pressure, forming along the front in the NW
Gulf, will move through the Carolinas, with a weakening cold
front trailing in the northern Gulf. A reinforcing cold front
will move into the Gulf late on Sunday, merge with the dying
front, and then stall along 24N through late Monday. The front
will lift N through Tuesday ahead of a stronger cold front, that
is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale force within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh
to strong NE winds are expected through tonight in the in the lee
of Cuba, through the Windward Passage and in the lee of the
Dominican Republic, including the Mona Passage. The aerial extent
and the strength of the trades are forecast to increase across the
Tropical N Atlantic waters on Mon, and over most of the east and
central Caribbean on Tue as high pressure builds N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N59W to 27N70W, across the NW
Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, and beyond, into the Gulf of
Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N49W to 18N59W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 27W and 55W. A surface trough is along 54W/55W
from 20N to 30N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N
to 32N between 40W and 57W.

The current cold front will stall along 26N/27N tonight, then
lift N of the area late Sun ahead of another cold front moving off
the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach
from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then
lifting N through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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