[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge that is in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower
pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support
winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, from 11N
to 13N between 73W and 77W, mainly at night, during the weekend.
The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 12 feet during this
period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W, to
the Equator along 27W, to the Equator along 40W, curving to 02S46W
in Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across N Florida near 29N82W, into the Gulf of
Mexico, to a NW Gulf of Mexico 1023 mb low pressure center that is
near 26N94W, beyond 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. Rainshowers
are possible across the Gulf waters, in areas of scattered to
broken low level clouds.

The current cold front will stall in the eastern Gulf on Saturday,
and then lift northward as a warm front in the western Gulf
through late Saturday. A new weak cold front will move into the N
central and NE Gulf by Sunday afternoon, shifting SE of the area
by early Monday. High pressure will dominate through Tuesday. It
is possible that the next cold front may move into the NW Gulf
on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to near gale force winds NW of the coast of Colombia will
increase to minimal gale-force late on Saturday into early Sunday
as the pressure gradient tightens, with pulsing during the subsequent
nighttime hours. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will
prevail across the rest of the basin, occasionally increasing to
fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage and in
the lee of the Dominican Republic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N75W to N Florida near 29N82W, and
beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N59W to 20N68W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward between 42W and 60W. A surface trough is
along 50W/53W from 12N to 33N. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 44W and
52W.

A cold front off the NE coast of Florida will reach from Bermuda
to South Florida by early Sat, then stalling along 25N on Saturday
night. The front will lift N of the area late Sun ahead of another
cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second
cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue
before stalling then lifting N through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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