[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic waters and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night,
through the weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high
as 11 ft during this period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W
and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from there to 02N20W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 75 nmi on either side of the boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the northern portion of the area,
analyzed as a cold front from 30N85W to a weak 1021 mb low near
27N94W. A cold front extends from the low to the coast of Mexico
near 26N97W. Abundant cloudiness prevails across the northern
Gulf associated with this front. Mostly light to moderate
southerly winds and fair conditions continue across the area south
of the boundary, but moderate to strong northeasterly winds are
occurring north of the front. The front is expected to stall from
south-central Florida to the central Gulf by early Saturday
before lifting northward as a warm front. Another cold front is
forecast to move across Florida by Monday morning, bringing
scattered showers with its passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Tranquil conditions continue across the region aided by very dry
air in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere and surface
high pressure. Only patches of low-level clouds and perhaps a few
embedded showers exist across the area.  Moderate to fresh winds
are occurring across the bulk of the area, except for the south-
central waters where winds to minimal gale force are continuing.
No significant changes are expected across the area during the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive surface ridge extends from a 1038 mb high in the
northeast portion of the Atlantic Ocean across much of the
southwestern Atlantic waters. Mostly fair weather continues over
the western Atlantic, except near the coast of northern Florida
where multi-layered clouds and embedded showers exist in the
vicinity of a 1016 mb low and associated frontal boundary
currently extending over South Carolina. Over the central
Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs extend from 28N52W to 21N53W
and from 21N48W to 14N50W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm
to the east of these troughs. A cold front is beginning to move
over the western Atlantic, and it is forecast to stall over the
SW N Atlantic waters by Saturday night and dissipate Sunday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

JC/ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net