[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Dec 31 23:40:41 CST 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 010540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to
14 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, are being
experienced, and will continue to be observed, for the next 24
hours. The area of coverage for the NE-to-E GALE-FORCE winds will
increase, in order to go from 10.5N to 14N between 74W and 77W
from Tuesday night until Wednesday night. IN GENERAL for the next
48 hours: Strong high pressure to the north of the region will
support fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean
Sea through the week. Gale force winds will be present during the
next 48 hours. Please read the High Seas forecast product under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
05N22W, to the Equator along 32W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 01N to 06N between 20W and
33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between
06W and 10W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N southward
between 33W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through southern Mississippi, across SE
Louisiana, into the W Central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, curving to 20N99W, and to 23N99W. The front is
stationary inland in Mexico from 23N99W to 26N101W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the west of the line that runs from the Florida coast near
30N86W, to 26N85W 24N90W, and 18N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

The current cold front, reaching from SE Louisiana to just north
of Veracruz Mexico, will move eastward a little tonight, before
stalling later in the morning, and then drifting to the NW as a
weak warm front on Wednesday. The front will move E again as a
cold front on Wednesday night, reaching from SE Louisiana to the
Bay of Campeche on Thursday, from the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, and finally move E of the area on
Saturday. Strong northerly winds are forecast to develop across
the western Gulf of Mexico waters late on Thursday, increasing to
near gale and even briefly to minimal gale-force along the
Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late on Friday. A surface
trough will develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon through Friday, move W across the SW Gulf of Mexico
during the overnight hours, and lose identity by late each
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line, from
13N69W to the north of the A-B-C Islands, to 14N75W, to 15N80W,
and elsewhere from 80W westward moving toward and reaching many
parts of Central America.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers also are to the NE and E of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE Venezuela.

Strong to near gale-force trade winds will prevail across the
Central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, increasing to gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia each night, and continuing through
the middle of each morning before diminishing. Locally strong
nocturnal trade winds are forecast across the western Gulf of
Honduras through Tuesday night. Locally strong winds are forecast
across the Windward Passage through Wednesday night. A cold front
will move through the Yucatan Channel early on Friday, before
stalling from Central Cuba to northern Belize on Friday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is associated with
the current cold front that is passing through 31N38W, to 25N50W
25N60W and 26N69W. A second cold front passes through 32N50W to
31N57W and 31N62W. The front is stationary from 31N62W to 33N68W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
23N northward between 34W and 50W.

An upper level trough is about 400 nm to the east of Africa from
20N northward. The trough is associated with the current cold
front that reaches 31N20W. The front becomes stationary from
31N20W to 24N30W and 23N35W. The front is dissipating stationary
from 23N35W to 17N43W and 14N52W. Rainshowers are possible within
240 nm to the north and northwest of the line 30N13W to 20N34W to
12N48W to 10N60W.

A surface high pressure is near 28N71W, with a ridge E and W
along 28N. The high pressure center will shift E of the area
overnight. The ridge will shift southward. A weak cold front will
move slowly to the northeast of the area, then quickly stall and
dissipate through Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move off the
N Florida coast late Friday, accompanied by a strong wind shift
to the N of 29N. The strong front will reach from Bermuda to the
Central Bahamas on Saturday night. Fresh to strong trade winds
will continue along the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic
approach to the Windward Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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