[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to
14 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, are imminent, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. IN GENERAL for the next 48 hours: Strong
high pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to
strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean Sea through the
week. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia mainly
during overnight and early morning hours through mid week. Please
read the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to
03N30W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 01N southward between 03W and 07W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 08N southward between 10W and
40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico
from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. 20 kt winds
are on both sides of the front. Platforms across the NW Gulf are
reporting areas of fog, with visibilities varying from 3 nm to 5
nm.

The current cold front, that is in the NW waters, will move E
overnight, and it will be accompanied by patchy to locally dense
fog. The front will stall again from Mobile Bay to Tampico, Mexico
late Tue. The front will drift back W over the NW gulf waters on
Wed, then move E again as a cold front on Wed night, reaching from
the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, reaching
from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri, and
finally move E of the area on Sat. Strong northerly winds are
forecast to develop across the western gulf waters late Thu,
increasing to near gale and even briefly to minimal gale force
along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late Fri. A trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon
through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the overnight hours
and lose identity by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer pass confirmed gale force winds off the central
coast of Colombia. Seas are at least 10 to 13 ft in the area of
gales, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean. No significant convection is noted at this time
anywhere across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across
the Central Caribbean through Sat, increasing to gale force along
the NW coast of Colombia each night and continuing through the
middle of each morning before diminishing. Locally strong
nocturnal trades are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras
through Tue night. Locally strong winds are forecast across the
Windward Passage through Wed night. A cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel early Fri, before stalling from Central Cuba
to northern Belize on Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades expected
elsewhere through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N72W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W to 29N50W to
27N60W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N
between 40W-55W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 33N23W. a cold front extends S from the low to 32N21W to
27N25W. A stationary front continues to 21N34W. A dissipating
stationary front continues further to 14N50W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the fronts.

A surface high pressure center is near 28N71W with a ridge E and
W along 28N. The high will shift E of the area tonight with the
ridge shifting S allowing a weak cold front to move slowly into
the NE waters, quickly stall and dissipate through Tue. A stronger
cold front will move off the N Florida coast late Fri accompanied
by a strong wind shift to the N of 29N. This strong front will
reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Sat night. Fresh to
strong trades will continue along the N coast of Hispaniola and
the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mn/mrf/mt
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