[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1154 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of Colombia each
night through Tuesday night. The gale winds will cover the area
from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W with seas 11 to 17 ft. The
gale is forecast to go below gale shortly on 29/1800 UTC, and
resume again on 30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas
forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N00W to 04N10W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-03N between 00W-12W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 20W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to
the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N88W. A stationary front continues
from 30N88W to the NW Gulf near 25N96W to N of Vera Cruz Mexico
near 20N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
northwest gulf waters north of the front, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere.

A stationary front over the NW gulf waters will weaken with the
remnants drifting W and gradually dissipating through Sun night. A
cold front will move off the Texas coast around sunrise Mon,
reach from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on Tue and
from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Wed. Strong to
near gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop across
the western gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale
force along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz on Wed night. A
trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon through Wed, move W across the SW gulf during the
overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low-
topped trade wind showers are quickly moving across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail
across the S-Central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia late each night through the
middle of each morning before diminishing. Fresh to strong
easterly trades forecast elsewhere through early Sun, then
moderate to fresh trades expected through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the central Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N
between 75W-77W. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the W
Atlantic W of 75W to include the N Bahamas. A 1030 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 30N60W. A cold front is over
the eastern Atlantic from 32N31W to 25N36W to 18N50W, then
stationary to 18N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75
nm E of the front N of 27N. Surface ridging is over the E
Atlantic N of 24N and E of 27W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge from 30N60W to central Florida will
shift S with fresh to strong trades forecast S of the ridge through
early Sun. The ridge will extend E to W along 26N late Sun allowing
a weak cold front to move slowly into the northern waters. The
front will stall and gradually dissipate from 28N65W to 31N74W
through Mon night. Fresh southerly flow will set up N of the ridge
on Tue ahead of a second cold front moving off the N Florida
coast on Tue night. This second front will begin to stall from
31N74W to Central Florida on Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net