[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of Colombia each
night through Tuesday night. The gale winds will cover the area
from 11N to 12.5N between 73W and 77W with seas 11 to 16 ft. The
gale is forecast to go below gale on 29/1800 UTC, and resume again
on 30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

A cold front extends from 32N32W to 24N40W to 19N52W, then
stationary to 19N60W. Gale-force winds are north of 30N between
38W-44W with seas 19 to 25 ft. Expect the gale to end shortly over
forecast waters at 29/1200 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 03N21W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 02W-12W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 17W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W
to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90 to the W Gulf near
25N96W to N of Vera Cruz Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh winds over the northwest gulf waters north of
the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

The front will meander across the northwest gulf waters through
Sun night. A secondary cold front will move off the Texas coast
early Mon and overrun the stationary front with the merged cold
front reaching from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on
Tue, and from the Port of Tampa to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed.
Strong to near gale force N winds are forecast across the western
gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force along
the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Wed. A trough will develop over
the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, move W across the SW
gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low-
topped trade wind showers are quickly moving across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the S
central Caribbean through Wed night, increasing to gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia late each night through the middle
of each morning before losing identity. Fresh to strong easterly
trades forecast elsewhere through Sun, then moderate to fresh
trades expected next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the central Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N
between 77W-80W. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A 1031
mb high is centered north of the area over the W Atlantic near
33N60W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N32W to
24N40W to 19N52W, then stationary to 19N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 28N. Surface
ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 24N and E of 27W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge extends from 33N60W to central
Florida with fresh to strong winds across the entire area. Winds
will slacken this weekend as the ridge shifts S to along 28N to
allow a weak cold front to move slowly into the far NW waters on
Mon. The front will stall on Tue and gradually dissipate on Tue
night. Then another cold front will move slowly E from the N
Florida coast Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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